So the other day I got the following tweet from a follower, and it's a question I get fairly regularly:
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Following and betting the plays of other handicappers (or "tailing") is an activity that's gone on forever. Back in the day, your tailing options were typically limited to the realm of touts, or guys selling their picks via newspaper ads and late night informercials - almost 100% of which were losing bettors. But with the advent of Twitter and message boards like Reddit, there are a ton of free handicappers out there that you can tail, many of whom are actually legit winners just sharing their picks to get recognized (hint hint).
Of course, the vast majority of eggs sharing their action on social media are break-even at best and downright scammers at worst. So I figured I'd share with you how I go about finding people to tail with the hope that it can help you develop a similar process.
For starters, figure out what markets you want to personally handicap and which ones you want to tail
This is super important because it helps to separate the accounts that you follow into "informational" vs "tailing" buckets. For example, I consider myself an "all markets" MLB bettor. By that, I mean I handicap and wager on sides, totals, run lines, and props in the pre-game, futures, and in-game MLB markets. There literally isn't an area of MLB betting I don't feel competent in. So any MLB betting specialists I follow, I do so purely for information. Maybe they will tweet out an angle I hadn't considered, or a piece of news I hadn't heard yet. I can potentially use that information to enhance my own MLB approach. But I will never, under any circumstance, blindly tail any bets posted by the MLB guys on my Twitter feed.
I take this approach because I don't want to skew my results in a market I personally cap. If a play doesn't make the grade when using my normal day to day approach, why would some random tweet be enough to all of a sudden bet it? Especially if I don't know all of the variables this other capper is considering. It's possible that if they looked at the same data I am, they'd decide against their play. Plainly put: If you're handicapping a sport, you should always seek out new angles and inputs to improve your approach. But if you don't trust your approach over others betting the same market, why waste the time? Just tail that person instead.
Accept that even the best handicappers are still just specialists
Notice how I specifically used MLB instead of baseball when defining the market I handicap? I'm sure my approach would work to some degree if I took the time to employ it in other professional baseball leagues, but I'm definitely not about to claim that I am an expert at the Nippon Japan League. That said, I'm sure there is someone out there who is, and if I ever find that person, I'd be happy to tail their picks.
Citing a specific sport or league that you don't personally have an edge in is an easy example of when you might tail someone else. But it's also possible that you have gaps in the sports you already handicap. For instance, you might be great at betting sides and totals in NFL, but tail someone on player props. A good example for me is that I am giving up on NBA regular season and sticking to just futures and playoffs this year. This opens up the opportunity to start tailing someone on day-to-day NBA bets going forward.
Process > Record
Forget record. Seriously. While I believe transparency of performance is a prerequisite, a capper's historical results are not the end all be all. The most important trait of any handicapper you plan to tail, is that they pull back the curtain enough to let you understand what factors they consider when deciding to make a play and that you agree with their approach. No one is going to give away the keys to the castle, but before I tail someone, I need to understand if they are a straight quant model guy, a momentum trader, situational bettor, blind trend bettor, etc. Give me a break-even capper with an approach that resonates with me over a guy having a hot start to the season, any day.
Figuring out someone's approach to handicapping a market is actually one of the most difficult parts of this whole process. Some guys, like @BerryHorse29 or @Whale_Capper are open enough about their models that they will post the outputs online and talk about their approach via blog posts and podcasts. Others are a little more secretive, but sometimes you can tell how they approach the craft just by the types of bets they tend to take. Otherwise, you can try and ask them directly via Twitter, Reddit, etc.
One last point on this: Only tail the markets where you think a capper's approach makes sense. You don't have to tail them across the board. There are a lot of "all purpose" Twitter handicappers out there that have so-so results overall. But sometimes you can identify a market that they are better suited for and the results show it, so limit your tailing to only those markets. I won't be offended if you limited your tailing of me to only my MLB sides, for example
Make sure your tails stick to their approach
For any number of reasons: losing streaks, time, bandwidth, etc. some handicappers may pivot from their initial approach. Someone might start by using a model with qualitative checks, but due to time constraints, pivot to just blindly following the model because it still provided an edge. This lack of secondary check and day-to-day awareness of the market might move this capper from the category of someone you want to tail to someone using an approach that doesn't sit right with you.
It's not always obvious when a shift in approach happens, but the most common timing is after a prolonged losing streak so stay on top of it. I've always thought that the key to being a successful sports bettor is the ability to not only handicap the market, but to also be able to handicap yourself (knowing when you actually have additional edge worth risking extra units - for example) and anyone you choose to tail. So...
Keep your list of tails manageable
As this post hopefully conveys, I'm pretty picky about who I tail. Currently, I personally cap the following markets:
- MLB - All markets
- NFL - All markets
- NBA - Futures and Playoff series/sides/totals
- NHL - Totals (coming soon!)
And as of this post, I tail the following:
- NCAABB - Futures/Sides - @Stuckey2
- Tennis - ATP Futures/Sides/Totals - @Whale_Capper and @BigTenWatto
- Tennis - WTA Futures/Sides - @Stuckey2
I have a handful of others that I am monitoring in markets I'd like to get to get exposure to, but not ready to pull the trigger yet. And I've "fired" a few tails in my time as well.
Anyway, hope this is helpful. And by all means, if you have any good suggestions for handicappers I should start paying attention to in markets I don't have covered above, please send them my way.
- EA
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